http://senseofevents.blogspot.com/2008/01/afgha...
John G. KrensonThe Bush Administration has begun to shift some new focus to Afghanistan for fear that it has lost some of its focus there in the last year. If the Bush administration has indeed lost focus there, then it must be true most of the rest of us have as well. Since 2003 Iraq has consumed us and Afghanistan become an oft referred to “forgotten war”. So with a positive turnaround in Iraq, current events in Pakistan such as they are and the start of a new year it behooves us to look back at Afghanistan and think about what lies ahead there.First a little - and simplistic - recapAfghanistan, a land-locked country that is a “you can’t get there from here” kind of place, has never known true stability, peace, or prosperity. It’s best years in modern times where during its monarchy particularly between World War II and the early 70s. Then the king was overthrown in 1973 by a relative and the communists saw an opening to push for power. That happened in 1978. When this new communist regime seemed threatened the Soviets were “invited in” to prop them up.First Jimmy Carter and then Ronald Reagan encouraged and supported mujahedeen freedom fighters from sanctuaries inside Pakistan to fight the Soviets there and Afghans fled the country in droves. The mujahedeen were successful, the Soviets fled, the refugees stayed in their camps, the west said “thanks and see ya later” and the mujahedeen groups went after each other destroying much of Kabul in the process.Chaos reigned in the country causing Pakistan to seek some sense of stability there by supporting and building up the Taliban, a fundamentalist Islamic movement in the Pashtun southeast that eventually gained control of 95% of Afghanistan. An Islamic State was established with severe enforcement of strict Sharia law. The country remained isolated from much of the world, Pakistan was relatively happy with the situation; yet, oddly enough, the Afghan refugee camps there (which never emptied after the Soviet withdrawal) began filling up with more Afghans seeking to escape the Islamic state at twice the rate as when they fled the godless Soviet infidels. Tens of thousands of others - namely women, Hazaras, etc. - were massacred. Remember the 2 Buddha statues the Taliban blew apart? Most of us do as it was widely covered by our media. Remember the thousands of Hazara Muslims who lived nearby and who were massacred at the same time? I thought not; the media seemed to neglect that little detail in their coverage.But the world would have probably been able to live with such a situation for a long time until Osama Bin Laden needed refuge and the Taliban were needing a little extra cash. So he came there in the late 90s but it was not an always harmonious relationship. During one spat Saddam Hussein invited Bin Laden to take refuge in Iraq but Osama and the Taliban worked things out. It made sense as Osama had more leverage and clout in Afghanistan and would always be under the thumb of Saddam should he ever move to Iraq.Then came 9-11For us the War on Terror began with the attacks on 9-11 though for Bin Laden it was only the latest in a series of attacks over a decade. The US came in, the Taliban went out as did Osama but unfortunately not in a box or even in chains.The Good News for USBut the good news is there have been no further terror attacks in the US or against US direct interests outside the war zone. Roughly 75% of al-Qaeda leaders have been captured, killed or isolated. Bin Laden is stuck in a cave somewhere and al-Qaeda is further away than ever from establishing a caliphate under its influence. There are two new democracies in the Muslim world (Afghanistan and Iraq) and democracy has made significant gains in many parts of the Mideast (Kuwait, Qatar, Lebanon, to name a few) though it has a long way to go. Most overlooked is the great success in prompting Libya, one of the greatest terror sponsors in the 80s, to switch sides with its WMD sitting now in Oak Ridge Tennessee. While not completely desirable, the Islamic world is in turmoil and that is strategically much more desirable than a hegemonic jihadist Islamic enemy bent on our destruction. Better to keep them divided than unified against us. At least that gives time for the long process of education and liberty to seed, take root and grow - a long process.The Good News for the AfghansThe good news for the Afghans is that they have more stability and opportunity than they have had for over two decades. Consider:Two elections with 50-70% turnout despite the threat of rain - that is, the rain of rockets (liquid rain keeps our own turnout to less than half of theirs).68 of 188 seats in parliament occupied by women.The refugees are returning, at least 5 million to date - people go where hope is.Annual GDP regularly increases by over 10% with incomes doubling since 2001.There are at least 14 new banks (a sign of economic liberty) and 32 radios stations (a sign of political liberty).There are 9500+ schools (real ones, not just madrassas teaching memorized hate) with over 5 million students - 40% of them female.Kabul University opened not long after the fall of the Taliban and the American University of Afghanistan opened in 2006.Reconstruction along the main road arteries of the country has decreased travel time by at least 50%.80% of the population has access to health care.See more good news at http://www.defenselink.mil/home/dodupdate/For-the-record/documents/20061006.html